Parlay betting is one of the favorite forms of wager for NFL gamblers and is the most popular form of wagering besides sides and totals narrowly beating out teasers. For years bettors have tried to hit big against the sportsbooks betting parlays. Some gamblers seem to swear by them while others never go near them.

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Are NFL parlays profitable? What can I do to maximize my edge against the bookmakers in these potentially large payoff but high variance type of bets? I’ll answer these questions and more in this article.

What Are Parlays?

Here’s a look at some of the most popular parlays: NFL parlays. NFL parlays are the most popular in US sports betting. The weekly NFL schedule allows you to make up to 13-game parlays almost every single Sunday. Taking a look at the NFL 2020-21 Season Week 1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook App you can easily see what makes NFL parlay betting so. While you are unlikely to find many sharps playing tickets with massive parlay combinations, there are very real benefits to parlaying two or three bets together. This article contains an introduction and overview of parlay betting. It will also cover several tips and strategies bettors can implement when it comes to betting NFL parlays.

Parlays are single wagers that are linked together, all of which must win for the parlay to be graded as a winner. Parlays are the American equivalent to accumulators, which are widely used in popular European betting markets.

The odds on parlays are greater than individual side or total bets. For instance, a two-team parlay pays +260 and a 3-team parlay +600, and as players add more bets to a parlay their odds continue to increase. Let’s look at an example of a typical three-team parlay on an NFL Sunday:

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts +8 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110)

If I were to risk $100 on this three team parlay I’d have a potential payout amount of $600, good for a $500 profit. All three of the above teams would have to cover for me to win my bet. If two of my picks cover the point spread, but one of them ends in a push, the parlay then goes from three teams to two teams.

If I bet a two-team parlay and push the one of my picks, it normally just becomes a straight bet at -110 at the vast majority of online sportsbooks. In fact, if these are not the rules on two-team parlays at your sportsbook, I’d recommend finding another option because any other scenario, even a no action (refund your stake) is borderline predatory.

True Odds vs. Listed Odds

Parlays, just like every other NFL wager have built in vig for the sportsbooks. Below, we’ve compiled a table of the “true odds” on winning a parlay without the bookmaker’s juice and the typical odds offered at most online sportsbooks.

As you can see, the sportsbook have a considerable edge on bettors with the vig. While it is smaller, but still significant when players bet two or three-team parlays, it gets larger and larger as players add more teams to their bet.

The odds past two and three-team parlays start to get considerably worse and are downright robbery when the bettors hit 7-team parlays.

Calculated Parlays

When a bettor takes a wager that is not the standard -110, the sportsbook will recalculate the parlay to fit the player’s new chosen wagers. This can be when a bettor parlays a side or total with a prop (or other non -110 bet), and though the vig will still be a factor, bettors can usually get a better price on their wager than just going with the standard odds.

For instance, if we add a plus odds bet such as +120 or +130 to other -110 wagers, we will increase our overall parlay potential payout. The increase in odds will vary but sportsbook, but is certainly something NFL bettors should try to utilize.

Parlays Are Normally a Bad Bet

As we can see from the table above, it is clear parlays have a significant bookmakers edge, especially as bettors begin to increase the number of teams. One of the main reasons for the increase in the edge is the risk and variance taken by the sportsbooks if someone should hit one of these bets for massive money. A winning ticket on a 10-team parlay pays out immensely even with the massive edge by the sportsbooks. A $100 wager has potential winnings of $30,000 which is a nice chunk of change for the sportsbooks to payout.

Also, parlays are high odds bets with a low rate of success and will increase variance more so than straight wagers on sides and totals. Also, consider that if you are betting parlays that you’re most likely not getting the best line because you aren’t line shopping.

Sportsbooks are hard to beat, especially in NFL betting where line shopping is vital. When I bet a parlay, I essentially throw line shopping out the window. Sure, I could luck out here and there and get the best numbers on all my games at the same book, but that rarely happens. Finding the best lines available at a variety of books and betting individual wagers is usually a better option.

Tips for NFL Parlays

Even though parlays are generally –EV bets, there are some situations where we can bring the sportsbooks edge down considerably and give ourselves the best chance to beat the book despite the vig.

Don’t Go Over Three

Feel free to examine the table above again as it is quite clear the bookie’s edge gets a lot larger after two and three team parlays. The true odds of +300 for two-team parlays are not far from the offered line of most sportsbooks at +260. For three-team parlays, the true odds of +597 are only slightly off from the +600 offered at most sportsbooks.

These are by far the best options for parlay bettors. As bettors add more teams, the vig continues to increase, making even 4 or 5-team parlays much worse bets than one or two teams. As we get closer towards 10 teams, the odds on parlays are among the worst bets for sports bettors.

Playing With House Money?

When bettors first deposit at a sportsbook they are rewarded with a bonus that usually comes in the form of a freeplay. Since you are essentially playing with house money, your odds will increase on all wagers since you are not staking any of your own money.

Depending on the bonus amount, a freeplay may increase your edge on the bookies by 10-20 percent. Receiving plus odds (beating the bookie’s vig) may be possible on a variety of parlay wagers with this rather large added edge.

Correlated Parlays

Correlated parlays are two-team parlays that are essentially two bets on that are likely to win if one of them comes to fruition, at least in the handicapper’s mind.

In the NFL, this might happen when a high scoring team faces an opponent in which they are rather large favorites. The bettor may decide to bet the spread favorite and parlay the over because if he is right about the favored team covering the spread – he figures the game will be high scoring. If the favored team also has a poor defense, the underdog may also contribute a lot of points to the total. This situation can also be used the same way a game that a bettor predicts to be a low scoring affair. These are just examples of the reasoning behind correlated parlays, bettors have a variety of reasons for betting them.

Correlated parlays do not have quantifiable edges and bettors will have to use their own judgment in how a game will shape up. However, if you become adept at betting correlated parlays, it can be one of the only ways to gain an edge on the bookmakers via parlay.

Although, it is also pertinent to note that correlated parlays are sometimes frowned upon by sportsbooks, and many will limit the amount a bettor can wager or disallow them all together from certain accounts.

Best Sportsbooks for NFL Parlays

US-facing sportsbooks’ parlay odds have quite a bit of variation, and depending on the number of teams in the parlay, each book may offer an advantage over another.

Bovada.lv offers the best 4-team parlay odds around at 15/1, and they are also one of the most trusted books for US sports betting dating back a decade. No book comes close to matching Bovada at 15/1 on 4-team parlays. Most other sportsbooks servicing US players offer 12/1 on these bets, making Bovada the play to be for 4-team parlays.

Bookmaker.eu has a slight edge, but one that is worth your while on three-team parlays. While most other books offer 6/1 odds, Bookmaker gives players 6.5/1 on this wager. This is especially significant considering two and three-team parlays have the lowest house edge. Bookmaker’s parent company have been around a long time in the offshore world and they always seem to pay players. For some, that is all that matters.

5Dimes Sportsbook offer competitive odds as well on their parlays and is one of the few sites that allow bettors to parlay proposition wagers, such as player and team props with side and totals. 5Dimes is among the most trusted sportsbooks on the web and is a pioneer in offshore betting.

While single-game wagering is the backbone of many sports betting strategies, there are times when bettors want a little more bang for their buck. After all, who doesn’t like the chance to earn exceptional returns on a small outlay?

Parlay betting is one of the ways that bettors can make that dream a reality. While not easy to hit, the returns can be outstanding. As such, parlay betting is extremely popular, especially with recreational bettors and those looking to build bankroll.

A parlay bet is a wager that includes multiple wagers on a single ticket. The ticket can include as few as two games all the way up to 10+, depending on the rules at the sportsbook you are placing your wagers at.

In order for these bets to be graded as winners, each of the wagers – or legs – on the ticket must be correct. So if you bet a four-team parlay and are only right on three of the games, you’re out of luck.

That’s the basics behind parlay betting, but there’s a lot more you need to know. We’re going to cover all of that right here.

What is Parlay Betting?

For a parlay bet, you’re combining multiple wagers on a single betting ticket. The more bets that are added to the ticket, the higher the potential return becomes. However, the odds of hitting all legs on the ticket rise with each addition.

As such, parlay bets are a high-risk, high-reward wager type. That doesn’t limit the appeal in the slightest, as parlays are among the most popular bets at legal and regulated sportsbooks. While challenging to hit regularly, the possibility of exceptional returns is quite the enticement.

A parlay bet can be placed on as few as two games. Sportsbook rules vary, but operators typically cap the number of games that can be placed on a single wager. It’s generally 10 or more before that applies, but consult the sportsbook where you plan to place your bet for specifics.

In order for the wager to be graded a winner, you need to be right about all legs. If you place a two-game point spread parlay and are only right on one of them, the ticket is a loser. The same applies if you wager on four totals on the same ticket and are only correct on three: the bet will be graded as a loss.

Parlay bets can be equal parts challenging and fun. They can be a welcome addition to the sports betting arsenal, but the chances of loss are high. As a result, many long-term sports bettors allocate a small portion of their bankroll for parlay and exotic wagers while using the bulk of their funds for bet types they deem to be more predictable.

Parlay Betting Examples

To fully understand how parlay bets work, it’s helpful to walk through a few different scenarios involving varying numbers of legs. Let’s begin by taking a look at a simple two-team moneyline parlay.

After examining a slate worth of NHL games, you find two contests to be particularly attractive. You handicap the two of them and come away with a clear choice on the winner of both of them.

• Boston Bruins -135
• Toronto Maple Leafs +115

Since you’re confident on both, you decide to add both games to a single parlay ticket. You’ll see the betting odds for the parlay wager on your ticket, but here’s how it works out and what you can expect the return to be on a standard one-unit wager if you’re correct.

• Odds of -135 and +115 equal total parlay odds of +274
• A $100 wager at odds of +274 equals potential return of $374.25 – the original wager plus a profit of $274.25.

That’s an excellent return if you’re correct in both cases, but the bet will be a loser if you’re only right on one of them.

Next, let’s take a look at a three-team point spread parlay. You find three games on the NFL docket that you really like and decide to tie them all together.

• Cleveland Browns +1.5 (-105)
• New England Patriots -3.5 (-115)
• Dallas Cowboys -8 (-110)
• Odds of -105, -115, and -110 equal total parlay odds of +597
• A $100 wager at odds of +597 equals potential return of $696.86 – the original stake plus a profit of $596.86.

As you can see, the potential returns rise quickly as more legs are added to the ticket. For our final example, let’s say you like four different totals on a slate of NBA games. You decide to go for the gusto and tie them all together on a single slip.

• Over 205.5 (-110)
• Under 199.5 (-105)
• Over 212.5 (-115)
• Under 208.5 (-110)
• Odds of -110, -105, -115, and -110 equal total parlay odds of +1230
• A $100 wager at odds of +1230 equals potential return of $1,330.38 – the original stake plus a profit of $1,230.38.

Astronomical returns such as those in the example make it pretty easy to see the appeal of parlay bets. Even if you drop your stake down to small levels, you’re still looking at really nice returns.

• $5 four-team parlay at odds of +1230 offers total potential return of $66.52.
• $10 four-team parlay at odds of +1230 offers total potential return of $133.04.
• $20 four-team parlay at odds of +1230 offers total potential return of $266.08.

And so on. The lure of outstanding returns makes parlay bets one of the most popular choices on the sports betting menu. As always, it’s important to manage your risk and be aware of the potential for losses.

Parlay Betting Odds and Line Moves

For each slate of games on the docket, oddsmakers release what are known as opening lines. In sports such as NBA, MLB, NHL, and College Basketball, lines will definitely be out the morning of the day of the games, but you can get a sneak peek the night before in some spots.

When it comes to weekly slates such as in the NFL or College Football, odds begin trickling in as the final games of the preceding week wind down and all will be released once everything is in the books for the schedule at hand.

After opening odds and spreads are released, the betting market gets its chance to weigh in. If a lot of action comes in one one side as opposed to the other, the lines can be adjusted by oddsmakers in a bid to even out the action more to their liking.

In addition, news that comes to the forefront after lines are released can lead to an adjustment. It has to be something significant to move the needle, such as an injury to a star player or a major trade, but this can also impact movement from release to game time.

Each of these shifts will have an impact on the odds for parlay wagers as well. For example, if one of the listed games opens at odds of -110 and then sees a significant amount of action, one side can be adjusted to -115 while the other is moved to -105.

The goal of oddsmakers is to make the side that they need additional action on even more appealing to bettors. For those who wager on games, it’s important to take into consideration the movement from release onward as it gives you a glimpse into public sentiment.

One other note to consider on line moves: odds and spreads can have a few ticks of difference between books. As such, it’s a good idea to engage in what’s known as line shopping – i.e. comparing the prices offered at different marketplaces.

If you find more appealing odds at one book over another, there’s nothing to stop you from taking your action to the place with the better prices for a slate of games.

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How to Handicap Parlay Bets

Normal handicapping rules apply for parlay betting. You’ll want to treat each leg of the ticket as its own event and break it down accordingly.

To break down games, you can begin with a simple five-step process and work your way out from there.

• Study the odds and any line moves
• Consider the overall strength of the two teams
• Factor in home/away performance as applicable
• Examine stats that really move the needle
• Review recent play for both sides

You can get more in-depth as time permits or as your experience grows, or you can also choose to keep it really simple. The choice is completely yours. There are bettors who have success with simple systems, some who kill it with an advanced approach, and plenty of others in the middle who find a balance that works best for their approach.

When handicapping parlays specifically, it can help to focus on the games you are most confident about. It’s tough hitting multi-team tickets, so it makes sense to only include those that you rate highly as legs on the parlay.

However, there are alternative approaches that can be taken. For example, let’s say you identify a pair of underdogs on a slate of College Basketball games that you like to win outright. A parlay with both of them could provide some serious bang for the buck.

Consider the return possibilities for two underdogs on the same ticket with the following odds.

• Odds of +110 and +145 equal parlay odds of +415.
• Potential return on a $100 wager equals $514.50 – the $100 original bet plus a return of $414.50.

A hybrid approach with elements of both strategies – most confident and underdogs you like – makes sense as well. In the end, it all comes down to what makes the most sense for your overall strategy and bankroll management.

How to Place a Parlay Bet

Legal and regulated online and mobile sportsbook operators make it very simple to build a parlay ticket. When you find the choices you like, clicking on them will typically bring up a new window. Included among the options is something along the lines of ‘add to betslip.’

Click on that choice and continue adding wagers until the parlay is built out with all of the legs you want to include. You can focus your parlays on moneylines, spreads or totals, or you can mix it up a bit.

The same applies for sports as you can do a parlay which includes games from different leagues, such as one NBA spread, one NHL moneyline, and one College Basketball total.

Please note that you can’t include two choices from the same fame on one ticket – i.e. spread and total. However, if you click on prop wagers for the game at hand, there will generally be ‘in-game’ parlay options to explore such as side and total or spread and total.

Once you have all of the legs added, it’s just a matter of entering your stake. You’ll be able to see the potential return based on the parlay odds right away. You can then adjust the amount of the wager as needed or click submit if you’re comfortable with what you see.

Before clicking on submit, it’s always a good idea to review all of the legs you have included. This little step can help prevent mistakes, which can happen pretty easily when building out a multi-team ticket.

Odds of winning a parlay bet

So you can easily figure out the potential return on a parlay bet by adding legs to a betting slip, but what are the actual odds of hitting a parlay?

Nfl Parlay Card Odds

The answer to that question depends upon the amount of games you have added to the ticket. For each choice that’s included on the slip, the chances of being correct on all of them go down.

That’s partially why you see such astronomical returns on big parlay tickets as the chances of it actually happening aren’t great. However, don’t take that to mean that it can’t be done. It certainly can, just don’t count on it being a regular occurence.

After all, if it was that easy to hit 10-team parlay tickets, sportsbooks would be quick to adjust potential returns accordingly.

For an average parlay in which all of the odds are at the standard of -110, here’s a safe benchmark of an odds scale to use.

• Two-team parlay: 13-5
• Three-team parlay: 6-1
• Four-team parlay: 10-1
• Five-team parlay: 25-1
• Six-team parlay: 40-1
• Seven-team parlay: 75-1
• Eight-team parlay: 150-1
• Nine-team parlay: 300-1
• 10-team parlay: 600-1

As you can see, the odds rise with each selection added to the ticket. The chances of hitting a two-team parlay aren’t too bad, but a 10-team parlay coming in requires a good deal of lady luck on your side.

Once again, don’t let that discourage you from taking your shots with parlays. If you practice solid bankroll management and keep yourself disciplined with more reasonable wagers elsewhere, there’s nothing wrong with taking a shot at a parlay with an amount you feel comfortable with.

One other note to keep in mind: legal and regulated sportsbooks run promos all the time. Keep your eyes out for ‘parlay insurance’ promotions. In general, the operator will provide you with insurance on a four- or five-team parlay.

If one of your legs is a loser, you’ll get a refund of your wager up to a certain amount. For those who plan to bet on parlays regularly, promotions such as these can be quite bankroll friendly as many a parlay has been ruined by a single incorrect leg.

The Bottom Line on Parlay Bets

A parlay bet is a wager in which multiple choices are included on a single betting slip. A minimum of two selections is required, and books can cap the total number of choices that can be included somewhere north of 10.

The chances of being correct on all legs of a parlay lessen with each selection that’s added to the ticket. It’s an inverse relationship when it comes to returns, as the potential rises with each leg added.

Normal handicapping rules apply for parlays. You’ll want to consider each leg as an individual event and break it down accordingly. You can take a safe approach and only include choices you are most comfortable with, or you can shoot for bigger returns by focusing on underdogs.

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A mix of the two approaches is perfectly fine as well. From a bottom line perspective, parlays are high-risk, high-reward wagers that are quite popular at sportsbooks.

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While it can be tough to generate consistent returns with them, it certainly makes sense to take some shots as part of a disciplined overall approach to sports betting.